A Tear for Thailand

So far I've posted at least two entries about Thailand, both of which have been quite upbeat. I really like Bangkok and Thailand in general. The place has so much culture and vibrancy, and I always look forward to my visits. I also love Thai cuisine, which is both delicious and delicate. Over the years I've made many Thai friends. However as I follow what's been happening on the political scene over the past three years, and especially over the last few months, I feel sad for the country.

Economically Thailand was once one of the fast-growing Asian Tigers. With the political and social turmoil over the past three years, its economic status has declined significantly. Former strongman Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was ousted in a bloodless military coup in 2006 and his TRT party was dissolved. Thaksin has been in exile since, first in the UK and apparently now in Dubai. Elections were held about a year after the coup, but the coalition which won was led by PPP (a party formed by many of the previous TRT members), which the Bangkok elite - led by the PAD - deemed a proxy of Thaksin. The PAD and other anti-government parties led widespread protest rallies in the capital Bangkok. Legislative means was used to topple PM Samak Sundaravej, over what seemed to be a small legal technicality - accepting fees for a cooking programme he did while as PM. Replacing him as PM was Somchai Wongsawat, a respected burreaucrat but also brother-in-law to Thaksin. He faced strong opposition and criticisms from the very first day. Thaksin did return to Bangkok once but fled just before the courts passed judgement on him in corruption allegation. But he still wields much influence and has many supporters, especially from rural Thailand.

A few months ago, the anti-government protesters (the "yellow shirts") took over Government House, where the office of the PM was located.

Last week the protesters took over the Suvarnabhumi International Airport, stranding over 300,000 foreigners in Thailand. As of this posting , the airport hasn't yet opened, and Thai society has been feeling the brunt of being isolated from other countries. Worse, the government seemed powerless to remove the protesters from the airport, because the head of the military refused to get involved, and even the police seemed ineffective.

Pro-government protesters (the "red shirts") then also started gathering in central Bangkok and there were fears that violent clash between the two camps would erupt. Then yesterday, the Constitutional Courts ruled that PPP had to be dissolved, and the PM Somchai was banned from poliics for five years, because of vote buying among its members during the elections. The anti-government protesters cheered in jubilation. The pro-government camp fumed and cried foul.

So what will happen next? Another round of elections most likely will be hastily called. Largely the same people who formed the PPP, minus the ones who are disqualified from politics, will likely create a new party, and chances are they will win again, because of the strong support from the rural population. Then we will go into yet another round of political confrontation. Some local observers say that to get out of this mess, the King should say something. But Thai royalty has usually tried to stay above partisan politics, so whether some royal direction will come is highly unpredictable.

Meanwhile the country plummets into a vicious cycle of further decline. After this airport closure fiasco, tourism will no doubt take a massive hit. Business people will also think twice about investing in a country where the political climate is so uncertain. And the local Thais will suffer.

I suppose as an outsider, it isn't possible to fully understand all the sentiments and forces at play here. But most of the political observers I speak to shake their heads in disbelief at how a peace-loving people like the Thais, led by usually rational, intelligent leaders, can let their country fall so deep, so fast. How can a dispute between two relatively small groups like PAD and PPP engulf the entire nation and bring everything to a standstill?

I also wonder whether what's been happening in Thailand could also happen in another country? What were the missing checks and balances in the case of Thailand? What lessons should other countries learn from this? Good questions to ponder over as we shed a tear for Thailand.

Thailand - Land of Smiles, Shrines & Stalemate

I found myself in Bangkok for two days this week for some planning meetings. I've always enjoyed coming to Thailand, and I've found most Thais I've met friendly and hospitable. The tagline "Thailand - Land of Smiles" holds true ... for me anyway.

Stayed at the Grand Hyatt Erawan, as I normally try to do. I like the Grand Hyatt, which is on Ratchadamri Road in central Bangkok. Very comfortable and conveniently located, near the shopping areas (not that I had much spare time to visit them) as well as our Thailand office.

There's a prominent Hindu shrine at the road crossing, next to the hotel. The Erawan Shrine, dedicated to the Hindu god Brahma and Erawan, his (three-headed) elephant, is extremely popular, drawing a constant stream of devout worshippers every day. They come to burn incense, offer up coloured garlands and pray. Sometimes there are traditional dance performances to honour the deity.

There are a couple of interesting stories about the Erawan area. The Erawan Shrine was actually built, at the advice of an astrologer, after several workers lost their lives in mysterious accidents during the construction of the Erawan Hotel in the mid 50's. It seemed the hotel project had plenty of problems.Besides the worker casualties, it was also beset by cost over-runs as well as loss of building materials. Once the shrine was constructed, no further accidents occurred.

A more recent incident happened in 2006 when a Thai man, later said to be mentally unstable, used a hammer to smash the hollow statue of Brahma into bits. The crowd of worshippers, once having gotten over the initial shock, descended on him and basically battered him to death. I'm not sure how many people (if any) were eventually charged. A new Brahma statue was completed and installed two months later.

Thailand is still going through much political uncertainty. It has been almost two years since the bloodless military coup which led to the ousting of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in September 2006. Soon afterwards, his Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party was dissolved, and 111 executive members from the party were banned from holding political office for five years. At the national elections in December 2007, the newly formed People's Power Party (PPP) won with a comfortable majority, and its leader Samak Sundaravej became Prime Minister. Critics cried foul saying that the PPP was just TRT under a new name and that PPP supporters were merely Thaksin supporters. Nonetheless the PPP together with a few minor parties formed the ruling coalition. Things have not been easy. The PPP continued to be pressured by the opposition Democrat Party. Some PPP politicians were charged for corruption. The abilities of the leadership have been called into question, with derogatory references to a "second tier" Cabinet. There's even a border dispute with neighbouring Cambodia over an ancient temple.

All throughout this period, Thaksin and his family have been constantly in the limelight. After more than a year of self-imposed exile in London, where he seemed to have a good time - he even bought football club Manchester City (which obviously got him a lot of media coverage by the football-crazy Thais) - he and his wife voluntarily returned to Bangkok. Charges of corruption and abuse of power were brought against him and his wife, Pojaman. Soon after the latter was sentenced to a jail term (although it is under appeal), Thaksin and wife apparently decided to slip away (after attending the Olympics opening ceremony in Beijing) back to London. The headlines in yesterday's "The Nation" newspaper said it all: "Thaksin Must Face Justice: Democrat". Moves have been initiated to seize his considerable assets and to try to get him extradited back to Thailand.

Yes indeed, Thailand is facing much political uncertainty. There's no clear light at the end of this murky political tunnel. So many things seem to be going wrong. And this political stalemate seems to have all stumped for breakthrough solutions. Perhaps a new shrine is called for. It worked for the Erawan Hotel. Perhaps it will work again for the Kingdom of Thailand.